Bayes-and-Certainty.md

@@ -73,8 +73,8 @@ Nevertheless, this idea asks us to consider what happens when two opinions diffe
 So one idea to handle this is to weigh the opinions as follows:
 
 1) Use the regular Bayes equation to combine the two probabilities. This is the one limit.
-2) Use the experiment with the most evidence for it (most decimal places) to establish another limit.
-3) Decide on a factor for the difference in evidence between the two experiments using the decimal place of the reported probabilities. An 80.3% probability vs. 73% has one more decimal place and so gives the 80.3% opinion 10 times the weight of the 73% opinion. Of course, if the probability comes with the sample size used to calculate it we can just divide the sample sizes to obtain the factor.
+2) Use the experiment with the most evidence for it (most decimal places) to establish another limit, $P_1$.
+3) Decide on a factor for the difference in evidence between the two experiments using the decimal place of the reported probabilities. An 80.3% probability vs. 73% has one more decimal place and so gives the 80.3% opinion 10 times the weight of the 73% opinion. This leads to the equation $f = 10^{Nd1-Nd2}$. Of course, if the probability comes with the sample size used to calculate it we can just divide the sample sizes to obtain the factor.
 4) Use the factor just calculated as a weighting factor in establishing the combined opinion between the lower and upper limit.
 
 For example, using $P_1 = 0.803$ and $P_2 = 0.73$,