... | ... | @@ -73,15 +73,11 @@ Nevertheless, this idea asks us to consider what happens when two opinions diffe |
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So one idea to handle this is to weigh the opinions as follows:
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1) Use the regular Bayes equation to combine the two probabilities. This is the upper limit.
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2) Use the experiment with the most evidence for it (most decimal places) to establish the lower limit.
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3) Decide on a factor for the difference in evidence between the two experiments using the decimal place of the reported probabilities. An 80.3% probability vs. 73% has one more decimal place and so gives the 80.3% opinion 10 times the weight of the 73% opinion. Of course, if the probability comes with the sample size used to calculate it we can just divide the sample sizes to obtain the factor.
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4) Use the factor just calculated as a weighting factor in establishing the combined opinion between the lower and upper limit.
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For example, using 80.3% and 73%,
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1) $P\_{bay} = 0.803(0.73)\\over {0.803(0.73) + 0.197(0.27)} = 0.917$
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1) $`P\_{bay} = {0.803(0.73)\over {0.803(0.73) + 0.197(0.27)}} = 0.917`$
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2) |
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